A New Scientist article from the issue 4 weeks ago has an interesting special report describing what is 'known' about climate change and what is still 'unknown', in other words which topics science has reached consensus on. The question "How serious a threat is global warming to life?" is considered unanswered, although the author Michael Le Page seems certain that climate change will present a huge challenge to life on Earth. In my opinion, anything that is sure to present a 'huge' challenge is surely a very serious threat, but what Le Page is getting at is that although science knows that rapid climate change will challenge species survival, it doesn't know how successfully life will overcome this challenge, and so the long term impacts of climate change on global biodiversity are unknown.
The argument presented to show that science doesn't know how successfully non-human life will adapt is summarized as follows: theoretical studies predict very serious impacts for biodiversity (as many species won't be able to adapt), and these are so far backed by real world studies, but on the other hand a warmer wetter planet with more CO2 available for plants to photosynthesize should support more life. When I first read this, it seemed silly; how could peer-reviewed studies which do provide answers to "How serious is climate change for life?" be given so little weight? If studies conclusively show that climate change will have severe impact on biodiversity, then surely we do know how successfully life will meet the challenge of climate change, and so be able to assess how serious a threat it is.
Ultimately, the reason this article got me thinking is because it's description of "How serious a threat is global warming to life?" as 'unknown' is contrary to the main aim of this blog; to explore the affect global warming will have on aquatic life! I am expecting there to be a wealth of scientific understanding about what a warmer future holds for aquatic life. There may be uncertainties and gaps in our knowledge, but we do have a wealth of information about the workings of aquatic habitats, flora and fauna, as well as the modeling tools and measured data to predict what may happen and then validate or discard these predictions as time goes on.
References:
Le Page, M. (2011) 'Special report: Climate change: What we do know - and what we don't', New Scientist, 22 October, 36-43.
Le Page, M. (2011) 'Special report: Climate change: What we do know - and what we don't', New Scientist, 22 October, 36-43.
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